Companies . Seeking Alpha - Investment Thesis When I last covered AbbVie (ABBV) back in October and ahead of its Q320 results, the company's shares traded at $83.5 and were in a … Landscape version of the Flipboard logo. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Guardant Health's IPO share price was $19, even higher than the $15 to $17 range that the company expected. The recent FDA signoff for Guardant360 hasn’t fueled the expected share price rally in Guardant. Nearly $36,250. The stock market plunged as the novel coronavirus and the disease that it causes, COVID-19, spread across the world. LUNAR-2 could enable the detection of cancer at early stages. And there were at least a couple of major factors behind the surging demand for Guardant Health's products. From their late-stage clinical trials, two COVID-19 vaccine candidates have generated exceptionally positive efficacy data. Guardant Health delivered these tremendous gains the old-fashioned way. Roche (SIX:ROG; OTCQB:RHHBY), Basel, Switzerland. Here's how much money you'd now have if you had invested $10,000 in Guardant Health's IPO. Find the latest professional investment research and stock reports on Guardant Health Inc here. This turned out to be a good sign of just how successful the company's IPO would be. When they arrive on the scene, investors flock to them. At that point, an initial investment of $10,000 in Guardant Health's IPO would have been worth $46,714. From ~47.2% YoY (year-over-year) growth in Q3 2020 on an LTM basis, the sharp slowdown seems unrealistic in light of the recent developments. The NTM EV/Sales is also trading at a discount compared to historicals. An even greater opportunity for Guardant Health, though, lies with its LUNAR liquid biopsies, which are currently available for research use only. Guardant Health Inc (GH) Q3 2020 Earnings Call Transcript, Investing in These 3 Stocks Now Could Make You a Millionaire Retiree, Copyright, Trademark and Patent Information. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. I’m convinced that Guardant Health can deliver mind-blowing returns over the next 10 years as well. The company topped Wall Street's estimates quarter in and quarter out. 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Early investors who were afraid of missing out haven't missed out on some impressive returns. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. Investment Thesis. The ongoing clinical trials will only accelerate the rising cash burn. The potential U.S. market for LUNAR-1 is around $15 billion. Anna has 6 jobs listed on their profile. Founded in 1993 by brothers Tom and David Gardner, The Motley Fool helps millions of people attain financial freedom through our website, podcasts, books, newspaper column, radio show, and premium investing services. By comparison, the company's … Yet, with no subsequent rally in the share price, the investor reaction has largely been muted, most likely due to the concerns over the pandemic-induced slowdown in test volumes. LUNAR-1 is another RUO/IUO product for treatment selection and the detection of post-surgery minimal residual disease and cancer recurrence in the early stage of the disease. Better Coronavirus Stock: Quidel or Guardant Health? The test volumes from biopharma customers, generating ~37.1% of the top-line, will expand at a similar rate to the past quarter. Both tests feed the development of the company’s LUNAR program. The consensus estimate for 2020 reflects the gloomy outlook. In August, the FDA greenlighted its liquid biopsy test, Guardant360 CDx, for tumor mutation profiling of solid tumors and as a companion diagnostic to identify non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suitable for Tagrisso® (osimertinib). It's usually because there's a perception that the companies are on to something big. Yet, with no subsequent rally in the share price, the investor reaction has largely been muted, most likely due to the concerns over the pandemic-induced slowdown in test volumes. Of course, you know what happened beginning in late February of this year. Google+. Guardant Health shares have risen 97 percent since the beginning of the year. Sign up today for full access. However, the Street forecast for NTM (next twelve-month) revenue at ~$346.5 million implies ~27.7% YoY growth. This accolade is a … I don't think so. Guardant Health thinks that its Guardant360 liquid biopsy has a $6 billion addressable annual market in the U.S. alone. With cases of lung carcinoma, 84% of which are caused by NSCLC, being more prevalent, Guardant, however, caters to a much larger market, unlike Adaptive, which targets rare blood cancers. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. However, driven by repeated capital injections, the cash and equivalents have doubled from 2019 year-end to reach ~$1.0 billion in Q3 2020. Yet, amid pandemic-related concerns over its revenue growth, the first-ever regulatory win hasn’t sparked the share price rally that usually follows such announcements. See you at the top! One of the most important of these was the decision by Palmetto GBA to make Guardant360 the first (and, so far, only) liquid biopsy to receive broad coverage for use in most types of advanced solid tumors. Edward Bosworth - September 3, 2020. The institutional investor bought 8.7 million shares of the stock in a transaction took place on 6/30/2020. Sources: The Author; Data from Seeking Alpha and the Author Estimates. To the benefit of numerous rivals in the sector, the size of the market is expanding too. Guardant’s FDA win has increased its comparability to Adaptive, which already had FDA-approved tests to detect blood cancers. Investors scoop up shares because of a fear of missing out. UBS SECURITIES LLC bought a fresh place in Twitter Inc. (NYSE:TWTR). Broader public access to highly effective vaccines can turn the tide and ensure the faster recovery for clinical diagnostics, especially for cancer, a highly acute condition requiring therapy. WhatsApp. However, the rivalry in early cancer detection, the focus of Guardant’s LUNAR-2 assay, is rising. Assuming a faster pickup in test volumes than suggested by the consensus, we project ~42.1 – 47.2% YoY growth in LTM revenue for the company, leading to ~$385.5 – ~$399.3 million in revenue. Assuming the historical average of trading multiple, our more sanguine revenue forecast for the next 12-months indicates an attractive premium offsetting the near-term concerns over growth. Via SeekingAlpha.com, Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains (NASDAQ:GH), Rouhani Says Iran Would Rejoin Nuclear Deal "Within An Hour" Of US Signing On, Federal Reserve’s final meeting of 2020: four things to watch, Electronic Arts lines up counter-offer for Codemasters. The most promising test, under development seeking FDA approval and CMS coverage, the LUNAR-2 assay targets early cancer detection in asymptomatic and high-risk individuals. I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. Gets Its Catalyst And Trades Up: Twitter Inc. (TWTR), Guardant Health Inc. (GH) By. Subject to the wider public access to effective COVID-19 vaccines next year, a faster-than-expected recovery in volumes is likely as patients return to cancer clinics and the FDA signoff accelerates the clinical adoption of Guardant360. Guardant Health (NASDAQ:GH) definitely has such an X factor. What drove the investment thesis was published data showing CancerSEEK performed well across eight solid tumor types. With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. The deceleration compared to ~22.5% YoY growth in Q3 2020 mirrors the management comments. Though Guardant is focusing only on widely-prevalent colorectal cancer, the management confirms LUNAR-2 will be applicable for a variety of cancers. The COVID-19 case counts are rising in record numbers in the U.S., and according to health experts, the worst has yet to come as winter approaches. But the vaccine hopes could accelerate the recovery in test volumes as the FDA approval speeds up the clinical adoption of Guardant360. As FDA approves more and more targeted therapies, the developers such as Guardant, whose precision tests are based on genomic profiling, stand to benefit in the long term. In another most recent transaction, which held on 6/30/2020, BLACKROCK FUND ADVISORS bought approximately 1.4 million shares of Guardant Health Inc. Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains (NASDAQ:GH) Investment Thesis With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection …. Pinterest. LUNAR-2 has a much larger addressable market of more than $30 billion. Why? Citing the uncertainty caused by the pandemic, the management wouldn’t issue a guidance for the year. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains. Yet, the vaccine hopes could reverse the pandemic-related slowdown. In September, Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) paid $7.1 billion in cash and stock to acquire GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL), a developer of liquid biopsy-based tests for early detection. Guardant Health expects full-year revenue in the range of $130 million to $135 million. The key to this success was the skyrocketing demand for Guardant Health's two liquid biopsy products, Guardant360 and GuardantOMNI. Log in; Seeking Alpha. View Anna Chen Ph.D.’s profile on LinkedIn, the world's largest professional community. Open in app; Sign up. With COVID-19 being responsible for about 30% of the mortality rate in cancer patients, the virus fears have discouraged the patients from visiting cancer clinics. In a separate transaction which took place on 6/30/2020, the institutional investor, TIAA-CREF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT bought 1.1 million shares of the company’s stock. Investment Thesis With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. Investment Thesis. Then the pandemic spread across the U.S., where Guardant sources ~90.6% of its revenue. User Sign In. Unlike Guardant360 that benefits both clinical and biopharma customers, GuardantOMNI, the other test for advanced-stage cancer, is an RUO/IUO (research-use-only/ investigation-use-only) product available globally only for biopharma clients. However, as the coronavirus cases showed signs of easing in August following the surge in early summer, a slight recovery has begun in Q3 2020. With EV at 28.5x of 12-month forward sales, the company trades at a ~24.8% discount to its 2019 average of ~37.9x. The risks that investors should prepare for in 2021, Guangdong marks double-digit export growth, FDA staff recommends watching for Bell’s palsy in Moderna and Pfizer vaccine recipients, Bill Gates says coronavirus lockdowns could continue into 2022 [VIDEO], U.S. tech giants face 6-10% fines as EU set rules to curb their power, Keynote Speech at the Rome Investment Forum 2020, Dominion Voting System “Designed…to Create Systemic Fraud”. Guardant360 is used to match advanced-stage cancer patients with the best therapy, while GuardantOMNI is used by drugmakers to screen patients for clinical trials evaluating cancer drugs. Indicating ~32.9% YoY growth, ~$284.9 million of consensus revenue forecast for 2020 implies ~21.6% YoY growth for Q4 2020. 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Guardant Health. * Invitae’s management is very seasoned in this field, with high Glassdoor rating and track record of having built public companies in the same field. With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. As opposed to pandemic-era virtual promotions, more effective in-person physician engagement by sales staff can raise the clinical adoption rates as social restrictions ease. So how much would that $10,000 investment in the company's IPO be worth now? 1. flipped into Stock Ideas. Janssen Biotech has already teamed up with Guardant to develop and commercialize Guardant360 as a companion diagnostic for its experimental NSCLC therapy, amivantamab. Excellent Anchor Investment For Any Retirement Portfolio: Guardant Health Inc. (GH)... Edward Bosworth-November 5, 2020. The lukewarm growth forecasts seen in consensus revenue and the discount in trading multiple compared to the historical average underscore the concerns. But with COVID-19 making a resurgence in the U.S., the clinical test volumes, generating ~47.2% of total revenue, are likely to grow at low single digits sequentially in the current quarter, the management projects. The stock closed at an all-time high on Feb. 21, 2020. Investment Thesis With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. Twitter. Returns as of 12/15/2020. As investors, we're taught one simple truth: Nothing is guaranteed. I think that this stock has the kind of X factor that every investor should like. His background includes serving in management and consulting for the healthcare technology, health insurance, medical device, and pharmacy benefits management industries. FDA signoff for Guardant360 is another driver for growth as it accelerates the private payer coverage and attracts more collaborators. The company has been in business since 2013 but didn't conduct its initial public offering (IPO) until Oct. 4, 2018. On an LTM (last twelve-month) basis, the company’s top-line had more than doubled compared to the year-ago period for four consecutive quarters through Q1 2020 (first quarter of 2020). After back-to-back declines sequentially, the total test volumes in Q3 2020 have jumped ~21.3% from the previous quarter. Is it too late to make a lot of money by investing in Guardant Health? Health ( NASDAQ: GH )... Edward Bosworth-November 5, 2020 the investment... Of its first day of trading, the world 's largest professional community from... Two COVID-19 vaccine candidates have generated exceptionally positive efficacy data the highest ever quarterly gross margins in Q3 have! 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